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In the past few weeks, Russia has been gathering troops in the area bordering Ukraine Merged into the Crimea region in 2014.At least 16 battalions of tanks, armed combat vehicles, mobile artillery, and ships for coastal attacks were mobilized; about the soldiers, they talked about 80,000 soldiers deployed On an arc of about 1,000 kilometers entre Chornomorsk y VoronezhIt is a strategic location in the vicinity of the Dnieper River and the Black Sea. The Kremlin movement intensified diplomatic tensions between Europe and the rest of the “West”.It may be due to the escalation of military conflicts that have not been fully resolved for seven years.
image: Google Map
For fear of a possible public declaration of war between Russia and Ukraine, the deployment of military personnel has become the headline news in the global media; similarly, because of its possible consequences on a global scale. The actions and public response of Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky placed hope for a peaceful settlement between the two countries.. The war has not stopped, adding more than 14,000 deaths in less than ten years.
Facing the increasingly obvious presence of Russian troops on the Ukrainian border, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov simply said: Russia has the full right to decide on its own to mobilize troops on its territory.; Especially in “hazardous and explosive areas”, they try to take preventive measures.but Not everything in this conflict is as simple or dramatic as it can explain At first glance.
The forgotten war in Europe
The crisis began in 2014. At that time, the two Russian-speaking regions in eastern Ukraine, Luhansk and Donetsk (collectively known as Donbass), separated with the support of Russia to achieve independence. In fact. At the same time, due to the considerable political differences between the Ukrainian population (half of which turned to Europe and the other part turned to Russia), various uprisings supported by Moscow They ended up in the division of Crimean territory and were eventually annexed to Russia. Since the referendum, the United Nations has always considered it illegal and illegal. Although the conflict between the two countries has not yet made international headlines in recent years, The reality is that this lawsuit has never stopped (Except for certain armistice agreements); therefore, it is often referred to as “Europe’s Forgotten War”.
For example, Zelenski reiterated that these weeks until around 2021 20 Ukrainian soldiers In the hands of Russian elements.Since 2015, the Kremlin has insisted that Implement a peace treatyIt was managed by France and Germany at the time, so Donbas has local elections and international troops withdraw from the Ukrainian borderIn addition, Russia gave up control of the Ukrainian border. Zilensky’s candidate campaign platform revolved around this conflict and Putin to seek a peaceful solution, which is by no means easy.
Why is the tension reappearing now?
There is no consensus among experts on why Russia decided to cheer for the fire immediately. However, several reasons are currently under consideration; most likely, the combination of these factors prompted Putin to deploy his troops on the border with Ukraine.
First of all, maybe intentionally Recovery of water supply in Crimea. In 2014, the Ukrainian government Decided to build a dam on the Dnieper River, Which automatically reduces the water supply of the Crimea peninsula by 90%.This action cost Russia More than $23 billion In the past seven years. The military deployments these weeks may put pressure on Ukraine to resolve the water crisis in the region.Second place Ukraine has stepped up negotiations and discussions to become a member of NATO; Russia has never been a “servant” of American interests. Although unlikely in the short term, in the Kremlin, Kiev interpreted it as closer to the “West” axis.
Third, some people think that this is another step in Moscow to accelerate the separatist conflict in Donbass. Since 2014, the Russian government has been issuing passports to Ukrainian citizens. It is estimated that so far, More than 640,000 people in the region have passports, which can prove that they are Russian citizens.Fourth, in theory, this could be a simple and straightforward search by the Kremlin. Strategically control the Black Sea coast.
It is not ruled out that a rather symbolic reason can be understood from two different perspectives. On the one hand, this intervention occurs at a certain moment, Putin’s popularity in Russia begins to decline, While the opposition movement led by Alexei Navalni showed a certain appeal. On the other hand, as Joe Biden came to power in the United States, Someone saw the test of President Gringo’s resolve in the face of Moscow’s decision during this deployment.Given the good performance of the escalation of hostilities, Putin may seek in these senses Performance Rule and power over its citizens and over the world.
Facing the troops, the deployment of the United States and the Group of Seven They asked Putin to stop and stop: “The actions of these large forces will not be notified otherwise. Represents threats and destabilizing activities.We call on Russia to stop its provocations and immediately eliminate tensions in accordance with its international obligations.” Follow the requirements of “friendliness” Specific actions taken by the Biden administration: Prohibit US financial institutions from buying bonds from the Russian Ministry of Finance or its central bank, sanction Russian economic intervention in the United States, and expel ten Russian diplomats. Moscow, as a response, Expelled ten American diplomats from Russia. however, Biden speaks directly to Putin It also proposes to hold a meeting in a third country in the next few months to seek a diplomatic solution to stabilize the border with Ukraine.
Although Zelensky and his government have publicly acted and spoken It seems that NATO and the United States are willing to stand by his side, Or believe Ukraine has military capabilities To face Russia openly, the reality is Russia’s material and military capabilities limited. In addition, NATO has no “Strategic vision“Someone tried to defend Ukraine from the outbreak of frank war in the region. Although the United States plans to send two naval destroyers to the Black Sea to get support, Decided to stop moving Elements in Turkey.
Although the possibility of open confrontation cannot be completely ruled out at present, everything may still be rhetorical..At present, we must pay attention to Putin’s State of the Union Address Next Thursday, April 21, see what wording he decides to frame his army’s actions on the border with Ukraine. Of course, in the next few months, how will the meeting with Biden proceed. The coin is still in the air…still.