Researchers studying the spread of COVID-19 say it appears that the number of new coronavirus infections across the country has peaked and will decline steadily in the spring.
The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling hub, which is a group of over 100 people who work to predict the outcome of the pandemic, welcomes this good news.
“This is just like the weather. Justin Lesser from the University of North Carolina is a professor of epidemiology. “This is just like the weather.
The 7-day average number of COVID-19 new cases per day is currently just below 115,000, as compared to 134,000 one week ago. If a new COVID-19 variant is not developed and vaccines for children begin, the models project that we could see 9,000 new cases per daily by mid-March in the best-case scenario.
The worst scenario is that if children are not vaccinated and a new COVID-19 version emerges, the USA will see a halving of the daily number of cases.
“I think all the models agree, there is some disagreement about the timing, but they all agree that immunity will ultimately have a big impact on the course of the pandemic and we should see declining cases as we move forward.” going through the winter and into early spring,” Lessler said.
The team has been forecasting different scenarios since last winter for different periods. The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub forecast that the number would rise until the early fall, in May when delta gained ground in the US. One model predicted with almost perfect accuracy when the number of cases would start to rise and peak.
Experts say that the main reason for the changing winter forecast is the increase in vaccinations due to the dangers associated with the delta, which has prompted many people to get vaccinated.
Rebecca Borchering, a Penn State University researcher, said that it’s the immunity that is going to cause these drops.
“I don’t see this one as being optimistic, but more like saying, “Hey, things must turn around.” Lessler explained that while there’s light at end of the tunnel they haven’t turned around yet. “I believe it’s of immense value to get people on the same page about what questions are being asked.”