after Raúl Bravo Aduna
Sometimes it is difficult to measure the adjustments and changes of the global economy as ordinary citizens… Until we see these effects directly in our pockets or at home. Things like this have happened-and have happened in the past 13 months-the world’s hydrocarbon market. It is impossible not to notice how gasoline prices change in our daily lives and some of their most direct effects on our daily lives. For example, in April 2020, the price of a liter of Magna in Mexico was 15.08 pesos. One year later, the average price of gasoline in my country is about 20.06 (more or less 20.17 this week). An increase of about 35%. My car has a 41-liter fuel tank; a year ago, it was filled with 618 pesos; at the end of the week, I spent 826 pesos.
However, the impact of gasoline prices does not end with the fuel we need to transport-of course, this no longer applies to private cars-it exceeds the monthly income that we sometimes cannot even stand. In the last two weeks, Mexico’s prices accelerated to their highest level in two years, exceeding the upper limit of Banxico’s target range (3% +/- 1 percentage point).which is Annual inflation rate increased by 4.12%. The price increase is particularly noticeable in household natural gas, tortillas and eggs.Yes it is Our two-week performance is different, Not because we threw them in our heads; On the contrary, this is because part of the supply (and production) chain is affected by the increase in gasoline prices.
The international crisis in the hydrocarbon market
You also don’t have to cheat the numbers. There are already several footnotes worth considering for gasoline prices a year ago. In March 2020, oil prices bottomed out,Largely, Conjugated by two factors.On the one hand, the economic and industrial closures due to the covid-19 pandemic Decline in hydrocarbon market demand, Whether it is industrial consumption or personal consumption. Countries like China have almost completely stopped the development of the world economy, thereby reducing their demand for oil. At the micro level, the same happened to people who began to stay at home in isolation. With no obligation to go to work and school, they began to reduce gasoline consumption.It is estimated Global oil demand fell by more than 20% in the first quarter of 2020.
On the other hand, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) was in a diplomatic crisis. At that time, in response to the demand crisis caused by the coronavirus, Saudi Arabia suggested: Oil production was cancelled to increase its price in the global market. However, Russia decided to ignore it. answer? The Saudis are beginning to give discounts to those who decide to buy directly from them and see who can chase to the end.Among all these, the Mexican mix is USD 12.50 per barrel; Until November 2020, the global average price Barely reached $40.I say “just” because the oil countries require that the average price should be $60 or more, Preferably between 70 and 80 dollars, In order to maintain a balanced budget.
Rebound
However, due to declining demand, gasoline prices are still at a low level throughout 2020, but they are controlled by OPEC. Until last November, Gasoline prices fell by 10.3%; However, as different economies in the world begin to reopen, Begin to observe an upward trend Continue until the first quarter of 2021. Gasoline demand has continued to grow in the past 4 months; Especially those Asian countries where the economic recovery is frank, it is expected that Return to pre-pandemic levels in 2023 And concentrate 90% of the hydrocarbon market consumption by 2025.
despite this, The situation on the whole earth is different.For example, in Europe, the new quarantine Gasoline demand begins to fall again. In the United States, last week, Fuel demand exceeds for the first time in 2020, But still 16% lower than pre-pandemic levels. And, in general, it is expected that it will never return to consumption in 2019, More important than very specific temporary peaks. Especially when there are already very conscious efforts around the world to accelerate the global energy transition.Joe Biden plans to invest 2 trillion (Trillion) Decarbonizing the U.S. economy.The European Union’s recovery stimulus package for covid-19 includes (37% of US$800 billion) Direct focus on climate sustainability measures.Positive with China Has decided to switch to electricity Facing the post-hydrocarbon world.
Wow, we did not fall by accident Public joking, And now the company will be called Volkswagen. In these changing years, this seems unreasonable.
But it’s not over yet
The hydrocarbon market knows that they cannot keep their mining time for too long. Petroleum countries must keep gasoline prices high enough to keep their budgets balanced. But not to hinder the recovery of fuel demand In crisis (as seen in Europe).However, it is not useless for OPEC and its partners (OPEC+) They are called cartels.Early March Decided to strictly limit oil production. As a result, prices soared even more. In a global market that has already suffered from growth, it is expected that additional supply will be released to offset their impact..In this case, in Mexico, the Ministry of Finance Decided to restore fiscal stimulus Magna, premium grade and diesel gasoline; however, it was later decided Withdraw the stimulus premium During Easter.
last Thursday, OPEC+ finally agreed to gradually increase oil production, Between May and July this year. Will increase by 350,000 barrels per day in May, The same amount will be increased in June, and 440,000 barrels a day will be increased in July.However, in the face of this posture change Price rises againBecause it is only interpreted as A conservative movement that keeps pace with the gradual increase in gasoline demand.
Between the two is a pear or an apple, The turbulence in the hydrocarbon market is still a few months of suspense.Especially in a country like ours, the black market of huachicol is lost Annual fiscal gap exceeds 20 billion pesos The increase in gasoline prices has had a very strong impact on our two weeks, and we hope that we can abandon the 2,000 pesos top bull.